Gloomy Predictions for the Rangers Endgame – Guest Post by Tony D

Tony D was good enough to make a lengthy comment predicting the finish to the Rangers saga on the blog earlier. I thought it worthy of a billing of its own. Here it is, for your delectation. It is fair to say that, especially in light of Mr Doncaster’s words on Monday, Tony is not happy, and with good cause I feel.

Thanks Tony for the detailed comment.

———————————————-

Regrettably, what will happen in my opinion is this…

1) rangers 1872 will form a new company say rangers 2012 (‘incubator’)and transfer its SPL share (each club has 1 share in the SPL)
2) Duff and Phelps as administrators will sell the ‘Goodwill’ or ‘intellectual property’ of the old club to the new club, probably for a nominal sum. That includes its History of trophy’s leagues etc.
3) The old company will try and exit administration via a CVA (Company Voluntary Agreement) by way of offering its creditors a ‘pennies in the pound’ deal.
4) HMRC will NOT settle for 10-15p/£ they will press for upwards of 50p.
5) If the big tax case goes against rangers HMRC (and Ticketus who are owed £27 Million ) will BLOCK a cva. Result of that will ensure rfc 1872 is liquidated.
6) Rfc 2012 will continue in the SPL as if nothing happened, with minimal sanctions as there is no sanctions available under the current articles of association. The spineless directors who adjourned Monday’s meeting will reconvene next week and pass new rules for clubs getting in a mess in the ‘future’. This against a backdrop of intimidation and fear not to mention nepotism.
7) Rfc 2012 will offer shares to the mass of orcs and buy large!….result will be that they’re still up there competing against Celtic. Meanwhile Dunfermline who have been financially prudent all season (closing stands to save money) will be relegated…hence the uproar about footballing integrity, both moral and sporting.
8) Whyte who has a floating charge over ALL assets as it was assigned to him from Lloyds TSB when he settled the overdraft using Ticketus money. He will either sell to rfc 2012 over a period for many millions or transfer the assets and remain a major shareholder in the new company. Once on their feet he can sell his shareholding…assets restored, whyte walks with Millions…win win.
9) Ticketus may try and block deal, but Lord Hodge has observed that they are a normal creditor and should be treated as such. An observation NOT a ruling as he had insufficient time and information to make a proper judgement. Ticketus will pursue Whyte separately (which will take years)
10) SFA meanwhile will uphold partial sanctions (maybe 6 m ban on transfers suspended to see if they pay the outstanding money on players at present) and the semi-derisory fine of £160,000 will be halved.
11) UEFA will ban rfc 2012 from Europe for 1 (maybe 3) years.
12) SPL will rule that rfc 1872 broke the rules using EBT’s and may or may not strip them of trophies. It won’t matter as rfc 1872 is in liquidation.
13) Domestic and European clubs who were damaged with their cheating will desist from pursuing rfc 1872 for damages as they are in liquidation

Summary

1) The rangers fans will claim a seamless history despite rfc 2012 having a new company number. (You can change names to the cows come home but it is the number which is important. Celtic FC have had the name number registered at companies house since 1887).
2) The creditors will be stiffed big style including HMRC and Ticketus.
3) Business as usual for SPL
4) Business as usual for SFA
5) Duff and Phelps will be lauded as geniuses and can take their seats at Ibrox whenever they want…despite the Police warning them that it was unsafe at a recent league match….our old friend Intimidation again!
6) UEFA may make some noises under financial fair play rules (STILL TO BE INTRODUCED)but will let domestic association deal with it all.
7) Due to intimidation, threats, aggressive posturing rfc have essentially got their way….the authorities have capitulated.
8) David Murray absolved…indeed not even questioned.
9) Whyte seen to be playing ball will be left alone as his actions will have been vindicated…semi heroic status conferred.
10) The establishment club saved.
11) Bigger than usual party in Stirling on July 7th 2012……a real ‘we arra peepil celebration’….confirmed by the actions of all involved.

I personally, will not so much as watch another football match in Scotland let alone spend money to go and see one. There will be many like me…for a short while, then normal service will be resumed.

Written by Tony D

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42 Comments

Filed under Football Governance, Guest Posts, Rangers, SFA, SPL

42 responses to “Gloomy Predictions for the Rangers Endgame – Guest Post by Tony D

  1. Greg72

    At the risk of seeming naive, is ANYONE thinking about the creditors?

  2. Depressingly accurate. God forbid sporting integrity get in the way of commercial reality…

  3. Greg72

    Another thought: do we yet know the result of the Creditors’ Meeting ‘by correspondence’? I see that votes had to be submitted by 20 April. It is now 3 May. Surely the Administrators know the voting results by now? It would be interesting to see whether the Administrators’ Proposals have been approved, and also to see whether a Creditors’ Committee had been constituted and, if so, who are the members of the Committee.

  4. metanight

    Sadly accurate. It lacks:

    “BSkyB will continue to marginalize the Scottish game to the stage that games will take place on Thursday afternoons.”

  5. Kenny McCaffrey

    So all we’d be left with is a boycott of Ibrox – and Scottish football a laughing stock (or even more of one than it is already). Sad. Really sad.

    • No-one knows or cares about Scottish football anymore. Not even its national assocation or (ahem) Premier league.

      Such a parcel of rogues…
      What force or guile could not subdue, Thro’ many warlike ages, Is wrought now by a coward few For hireling traitor’s wages.

  6. iki

    If you are shown to be correct, I have at least £600 pa that will be spent on another recreational activity.

  7. fisiani

    Is there any possible legal challenge by an individual, company or club to this Get out of Jail strategy that lands all the penalties and debt with Oldco and pretends that Newco has all the assets, players and history?
    Will everyone in Scotland simply roll over and accept a Rangers that have received mere token sanctions yet leaving behind over a 100 million pounds of debt and a decade of cheating?

  8. Alec McAulay

    Is there a mechanism for a club to transfer its share in the SPL to another club? If not then the scenario above falls at point 1: the share reverts to the SPL for allocation to whatever club they chose to give it to.

    • Littlerabbits

      I believe you are correct Alec, but do you really believe the SPL won’t give it straight back to the Newco?

      • Jonbhoy

        Agreed, Doncaster all but said this recently, up to the SPL board to allocate the share hence the nod to D&P that newco RFC will be in the SPL next year…its a done del guys.

  9. I hope they try it!
    It seems to me that if Newco wish to “inherit” the history of RFC, then they are also inheriting the double contracts scandal, the 3-0 defeat for every match in which ineligible players featured, the consequent, revised points total which must certainly mean relegation from the SPL for each season in which those 77 players participated, the immediate reinstatement to the SPL of all of the clubs which were wrongly relegated in those seasons, a class action against the SPL and the SFA for enforcing those wrongful relegations, the stripping of every honour which was dishonourably won by ineligible players, a ban from European competition for every year in which the ineligible players cheated honest clubs out of their own chance to participate and a fresh start at the lowest level of the Scottish professional game. And that level is a lot lower than the third division of the SFL, as Ross County and Inverness CT can confirm.

    • sarissa

      Bear in mind that if UEFA exact a Sion-style punishment for all the seasons Rangers used the EBTs, half of Scotland’s co-efficient ranking would never have been gained, which indirectly allowed Celtic at least two direct entries to the money spinning Champions League group stages.

      It would also leave our teams starting in Europe a month earlier with far lower seeding (I know that will be the case anyway in two years time, but it would be unwelcome in our current state).

      i wonder how much talk of tainted titles there would be in those circumstances?

      • So we should embrace Rangers cheating as it gets Scottish teams through a couple of qualifiers over a copuple of seasons? No thanks bud – it’s the SPL/SFA’s fault that they got away with it for so long, we should take our lumps like men. Not be swayed byu self interest like Rangers.

  10. Shafting creditors like this would guarantee moral hazard. Why wouldn’t every single indebted club not follow suit and pull exactly the same stunt? Killie? Hearts? A multitude of teams in England? Indeed, why wouldn’t they?

    • Littlerabbits

      Because as Doncaster pointed out in his radio interview the other night, the SPL will shortly be changing the rules to stop it happening in future.

      • Jonbhoy

        Yes the will change the rules after the RFC Newco is back in the SPL. If they had any integrity they would ahve voted in the sanctions with immediate effect to capture the newco scanrio. They fact they keep postponing the vote means they will not act until the newco is in place. RFC ok everyone else will get shafted in future !

  11. Ian in Oz

    A few people have mentioned the Gang of Ten (I assume that is the reference to the “spineless directors”, though perhaps Celtic is included as well) not taking action the other day. I was also disappointed in their inaction initially.

    However, from Neil Doncaster’s comments, I’m guessing that he suggested any action they took would not be effective till the start of the next season (him being a lawyer, I’m guessing that the legal challenge should they try and “shift the goalposts” to this season was probably the issue – any comments on that Paul?). Therefore, the most sensible thing they could do was wait to see if RFC(ia) capitulated without them getting the blame for it.

    If the GoT believed that any sanctions where not immediately effective, then what would be the point in putting the old dog down themselves when, perhaps, HMRC could do it for them.

    That said, otherwise, I’m a little concerned that the points listed above are all to accurate. Protesting / resigning from the SPL en masse, would be the solution that will never happen.

  12. Bill McCreath

    If Tony is correct and I suspect he may be I to will be spending around £700 per year on something other than Scottish football.

  13. BhoyEddie

    The only doubt I have to this scenario is, if it was that easy they would have done it already, with a side deal for Ticketus

  14. degough

    Well done Tony. Made it all a bit clearer. The bottom line is that the SPL want to keep the Rangers cash cow, and the moral issues are just that. By the way have you notised how difficult it is to find anything on the internet about Bill Millers past? Maybe its me but I can’t find any history on him.

  15. degough

    You forgot to mention the fit and proper test. Will Miller pass it?

  16. merciatic

    How can you sell “history”? I f rangers old win a trophy, you can sell on the physical trophy but you can’t say rangers new have won that trophy.

    • As we all know, history is written by the winners. It’s clear there is only one winner in all this (indeed arguably in Scottish football) and that’s Rangers – newco/oldco/uptotheirkneesco….

  17. footballisfun

    If Tony is correct I will be emigrating! This potential outcome is not just a reflection on Scottish Football but society as a whole. I’m not morally double jointed so could never explain such an outcome to my kids.

  18. kevin mcsherry

    I asked this earlier in the week but unfortunately I didn’t get a reply, Perhaps someone with a better understanding of the law can provide me with an answer.
    Surely creditors can object to Bill Millers plan to purchase all of the assets of RFC (valued at or around £100m) for £11m leaving behind only a shell and a pile of debts.
    This seems to me far too obvious a loophole for unscrupulous business men to exploit.

    • this is also the bit that I can’t fathom – while there’s a pile of creditors how can D&P possibly be allowed to sell the ‘income’ side of the business and leave behind nothing but scraps for them to fight over?

      I don’t fancy paying my mortgage Mr Bank Manager so I’ve just sold my house (for a fraction of it’s value) to myself and I’m going to let myself live in it.

      ?

  19. Torquemada

    This reads like a bear’s nocturnal emission if ever there was one. The only way it could happen was if the SFA acted in a vacuum where none of its actions would be noticed or analysed, even those which impinge upon Uefa’s increasingly stringent stance on FFP. It’s written as if Switzerland or Derry City never happened.

    Now Scotland might indeed be Protestantism’s Pakistan (the wee North is its Saudi Arabia lol!) where the authorities and media preach tolerance and anti-extremism while quietly acquiescing in the face of intimidation and even occasionally stirring the pot, but the idea that such wholesale contempt for the values of the game would be allowed go unchecked is a slur even on the benighted SFA.

    No. When the BTC bomb explodes, there will be such a tsunami of outrage and disgust all over the UK that no one of any calibre or public standing will dare align him or herself with the foul detritus of Rangers.

    Sorry, Tony, you can try to manage expectations downwards (or is it upwards?) all you like — it ain’t gonna happen.

    • I pray to every God you are right Torque. I think some of us are so conditioned that Rangers always get their own way, with a pat on the head from every establishment er establishment that we can’t see the end of days actually coming to pass. We’ll see (mebbes).

  20. boydy

    Hi Tony What about the secured assets in oldco ie Ibrox,Murray Park etc.
    and the assets with a floating charge players etc.I assume on liquidation the players are free agents and the floating charge is worthless.However the security on Ibrox is critical since newco have to play somewhere
    i.e.Ibrox or indeed lease Hampden .Ican only surmise that There will be litigalitigation pending between Ticketus and Craig Whyte which will bring Ibrox int

    i

  21. boydy

    Apologies bring Ibrox into litigation procedures which may take years to resolve and therefore newco could not play at Ibrox until litigation had been resolved through a long protracted court process

  22. Daniel Toye

    If this comes to pass, what will really stick in my throat is seeing tax-paying Dunfermline relegated.
    Shame!

  23. Alan

    The company number is utterly irrelevant – Rangers didn’t get this one until 1899, 27 years after they were founded!!

    Anyone who thinks Craig Whyte is getting anything from this is living in cloud cuckoo land. Miller will take leagal action and prove that Ticketus’ deal is with Whyte not Rangers – let the two of them fight it out in court.

    The incubator company is a great idea as it will tkae years for these legal issues to be resolved.

  24. Deviling devil

    Tony, we feel your pain and it’s clear what side of the bed you are on. Dulling your article with silly adjectives to describe rangers fans is vey immature and does you no credit.

    One must surmise your are hurting and that once more you have been trodden on even thought your team were handed a tainted title.

    Poor show.

  25. Niall Walker

    Tony,

    I enjoyed your synopsis, however I am confused,. D&P have stated there is no CW floating charge and Ticketus are unsecured creditors, and they are about to sell these assets to BM for 11.2 million. It seems inconceivable, knowing the BTC was just around the corner, that Ticketus would not insist on security for their 26.7 million, and CW would not reciporacate with a floating charge over the assets of Rangers.
    There has been a peculiar silence from both CW and Ticketus over this issue, although the withdrawal of Ticketus from the CVA consortium bid.suggests they are confident of getting their money back in full.

    So either D&P are wrong, or CW is a financial cretin.

    As a side issue how do the SPL-SFA get round the fact that their original member is still in administration, and do they penalise the old or newco for this existant condition ?

    Catch 22, too many penalties will terminally damage any chance of a financially viable Rangers, not enough and Rangers could be competing for major honours( including Europe) in 2013-14.
    Whether one admits it or not, Scottish football needs a healthy Rangers but at what price to integrity, too soft on the penalties and the SFA could be accused of bringing Scottish football into disrepute, the very charge they levelled against CW.

    Miller will pull out if further European bans are being considered.

  26. Drew Adamson

    I know that the debt culture is different in the good ole US of A, witness sub-prime mortgages and a whole load of “walking away” by householders lumbered with huge interest payments up with which they could not keep, so is Bill Miller perhaps confusing the legal mechanisms which apply there with a very different set which apply here. Is it legal to sell off, effectively, at peppercorn rates or to transfer at zero cost, assets to a holding company to prevent creditors, and particularly , HMRC getting their hands on debts due? And does that not apply even more so when a company is in administration, when the administrators’ prime function is supposed to be getting as much as possible for the creditors, so that in this case, do D&P not leave themselves open to litigation if they achieve on pennies in the pound (5-10p?) with BMs mechanisms as opposed to liquidation which would have raised perhaps 40 p in the £? Surely if there are assets of £60 million, then that is the amount which has to be made available to pay off the creditors, including us (the taxpayers via HMRC) Ticketus and all the wee guys?

    • Niall Walker

      Morning Drew,

      It is perfectly legal for an administrator to sell off assets without the consent of the shareholders or creditors to fund the administration process. The oldco is not being liquidated ( yet) and I assume the 11.2 million will fund the multiferious legal actions that will take place over the next year, in other words the administration process continues without the assets. It is also not illegal( yet) for a new owner to create a phoenix company from these assets and begin trading immediately using these assets.
      As for Rangers assets only being worth 11.2 mllion, I can only assume that the Newco has transferred the debentures( 7 million secured creditors) and has taken on all the employment contracts , saving 2-3 million in secured redundancy payments. Technically the bid is worth around 20 million to the creditors, the administrators believe this to be a better return than if the assets were liquidated and sold in a firesale.

  27. Tommy B

    It has already been stated that this plan is morally wrong, but is it legal? I find it difficult to believe that it is possible to have massive debts and more on the way, then just do a little sleight of hand and the debts belong to someone else and it’s business as usual.
    CW apparently owns the majority of shares in nothing. Ticketus and HMRC are rendered powerless by what is taking place and the players will simply be told that they are now playing for the newco.
    I had thought that D&P were appointed to ensure that the creditors interests were looked after, it appears that they have actually went about their business more like management consultants on behalf of the club. The creditors interests have been largely ignored, and the only people who appear happy are the supporters.
    If the SFA/SPL rubber stamp ththis fiasco, I along with thousands more will find alternatives, where my money will be spent. I say this with great sadness and reluctance, having been a season ticket holder for forty years.

    • Niall Walker

      Tommy,

      The administrators do not believe the assets of Rangrs are worth 60 million in a liquidation sale, because no one bid anywhere near this amount. They have the evidence in the shape of the bids what is the market value of these assets, remember there was nothing stopping any bidder from offerring 25 million in the form of a liquiidation bid.

      The assets obviously have little value to any form of investor, whether it be football or property or entertainment.

  28. lordmac

    what would the senario be, IF Rangers get into the SPL, on the grounds of the TV money, as there trying to say this is there reason.
    suppose with the RANGERS getting docked 10 points and they did not make the cut of the top 6 teams, and to add to this, Celtic having won the league by this time, who is going to change the fixtures to suit and again, should rangers fall into the relegation zone what would the changes be then. with this scenario coming about, but don’t be surprised that there is no deal with sky at all for now, or the mentioning of the 4 games this next season2013-14 anyway, the SFA AND SPL will wriggle out of this now, as been the reason for needing rangers. Sky should also consider there position that, there membership is also as fragile as is the SPLS.

  29. Kevs

    Does anyone else have the feeling that this is all a done deal and that all the major establishment ‘players’ in this sorry saga are scheming to allow Rangers to walk away from all this debt and just carry on regardless?

    Justice, no matter who you are.

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